Liverpool will beat Arsenal at Anfield on Sunday, and the win will put them in a title race. Victory in the 4.30pm kick-off would lift Andoni Iraola’s side to 18 points, three behind the champions. Anfield knows what is riding on it; there has been a lot of chatter on Merseyside all week.
Manchester City and Arsenal share the lead on 21 points, City top on goal difference, with Liverpool fourth on 15 after eight games. Lose, and Liverpool would be nine points behind Arsenal. Iraola insisted on Friday that it is “too early to start looking at the standings”. Win this, and it won’t be.
Liverpool are getting better under Iraola, slowly but surely. They have won five in a row in all competitions, the latest on Wednesday, when a side showing seven changes drew 1-1 with Chelsea in the Carabao Cup and went through 6-5 on penalties. The win that matters most came last Sunday: 2-0 against Brighton, who had beaten Arsenal 3-0 at the Amex in September. On its own, that means nothing once Arsenal arrive. Brighton are still a good side, though, and Liverpool have now shown they can beat one of the top teams in the division.
The attack Liverpool spent heavily on is starting to deliver. Alexander Isak has six goals in seven league appearances, the latest against Brighton from Bradley Barcola’s pass. Barcola looks better each week. Florian Wirtz is getting involved in what Liverpool paid for, goals and assists; against Brighton it was his shot that Pascal Gross turned into his own net for the opener.
The bigger change is at the back. Liverpool conceded 53 league goals last season. This season they have conceded eight in eight, and three of those came against City, all after Ryan Gravenberch was sent off on 62 minutes. Ronald Araújo, on loan from Barcelona, and Jérémy Jacquet, signed from Rennes, have made a big difference beside Virgil van Dijk. Solid by last season’s standard, that is. By Arsenal’s it is not: Mikel Arteta’s side have conceded five, the fewest in the league. Iraola made the same case on Friday: “We know they are very good defensively. I think also defensively we are in a good place.”
The case against Liverpool is simple. Arsenal could come to Anfield, take control of midfield, defend the way they have all season and win 1-0 or 2-0. They have lost one league game in eight. Arteta said his side would travel “with full conviction”, and admitted that on recent visits “something is missed”. Arsenal have not won a league game at Anfield since September 2012, when Arteta played in their midfield.
The answer lies in what kind of champions Arsenal are. When Liverpool went toe-to-toe with Manchester City, you had to be on it every time in the build-up, because City were one of the most consistent sides English football has seen and Erling Haaland, Kevin De Bruyne and Phil Foden would tear you apart. You don’t feel that with Arsenal. Their strength is their defence. A side built that way can be beaten 2-1.
Arsenal will be without Bukayo Saka, out since an injury at Bayern Munich earlier this month, and Noni Madueke is a doubt. On Tuesday they went out of the Carabao Cup on penalties at League Two Fleetwood Town, with 16-year-old Max Dowman sent off. Liverpool could have Dominik Szoboszlai and Víctor Muñoz back from minor injuries; Jeremie Frimpong is out.
Iraola expects the game to turn on “winning the duels, running more than them, winning the aerial duels”. At home, in this form, Liverpool can win them.
Liverpool 2-1 Arsenal. By 6.30pm on Sunday they will be three points behind the champions, and in a title race.